HURRICANE MATTHEW: May Be Weakening, Maybe Not As It Approaches Boca Raton

Hurricane Matthew boca raton

Hurricane Matthew as of 5pm on Thursday.

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Source: NHC) — Hurricane Matthew may be weakening. The National Hurricane Center in its 5pm update says a second eye wall may be attempting to form which could lead to a decrease in strength. Read both the 5pm “Discussion” and “Bulletin” from the National Hurricane Center below.

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121
kt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Until
the plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensity
is kept at 120 kt. There some indications that an outer eyewall is
trying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, some
weakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations in
intensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Florida
that are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combination
of land interaction and a significant increase in the shear should
cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the
SHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trend
of the consensus thereafter.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving
toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow has
not changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic
during the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the
hurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steering
pattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomes
highly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weaker
Matthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows the
southwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two global
models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

…EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO HIT
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS…
…POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.2N 78.6W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…938 MB…27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to South Santee
River, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of South Santee
River to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 78.6 West. The hurricane
is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward
the north-northwest early Friday. On the forecast track, the
eye of Matthew should move near or over Freeport in the Bahamas
in the next hour or so, and move close to or over the east coast
of the Florida peninsula through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
while the hurricane moves toward the coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). Settlement Point in the Bahamas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust of 62 mph (100
km/hr).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane was 938 mb (27.70 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this evening.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida this evening and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the
Florida east coast tonight and Friday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected on Friday.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels…

Northwestern Bahamas…10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River…7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina…4 to 6 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida…4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina…2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach, Florida…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The central and northern Bahamas…8 to 12 inches, isolated 15
inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southeast
North Carolina….5 to 10 inches, isolated 12 inches

Rainfall should diminish across central and eastern Cuba with
isolated additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible through this
evening.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

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