HURRICANE MATTHEW: Now It's Time To Start Watching In Boca

BOCA RATON, FL ( — Much like your Great Grandmother who gets just a little too close for comfort, Hurricane Matthew may now hug the coast of South Florida — and Boca — as it treks up towards South Carolina. Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. 

The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this

morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has

become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of

hours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air

Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb

flight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the

northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a

little before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of

934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt.

The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in

Matthew before 1200 UTC this morning.
Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still

moving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt. Matthew is expected

to move generally northward around the western periphery of a

deep-layer ridge today and tonight. This will bring the center of

Matthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the

next few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After

moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn

north-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western

portion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of

the hurricane. Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the

western periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then

north-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east

coast of the United States late in the period. Most of the

dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida

and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC

track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted

slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus

of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact

forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous

storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.
Although some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible

today, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should

allow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next

couple of days. Gradual weakening is predicted later in the

forecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and

cooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane

during the entire 5 day period.
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm

surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in

portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the

Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services

and other government officials in those countries.
2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this

week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later

this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of

Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this

weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too

soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on

the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum,

very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of

the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.
INIT 04/0900Z 17.8N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH

 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH

 24H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH

 36H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

 48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

 72H 07/0600Z 28.0N 79.6W 105 KT 120 MPH

 96H 08/0600Z 31.7N 79.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

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