NOT DEAD YET: Matthew Could Be South Florida Issue

BOCA RATON, FL ( — Keep an eye on Hurricane Matthew. Earlier this afternoon it appeared there would be little to no impact on South Florida… now, that may not be the case. The latest from the NHC:

Matthew’s structure has not changed much today. The most recent Air

Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124

kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak

flight-level wind of 118 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the

initial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central

pressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day.

Matthew’s satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 n mi

wide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80C or colder and

excellent outflow, especially poleward. Little change in intensity

is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of

some possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and

eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due

to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is

expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the

shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a

little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the

next 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity

forecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity

consensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5.
Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06.

The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the

hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours

around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The

new NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward

toward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show

the core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the

southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern

Cuba on Tuesday.
At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and

now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western

extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew

across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a

more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the

Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west,

with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina

in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little

farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL

and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the

ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted

significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of

the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there

remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long

range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm

surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in

portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the

Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services

and other government officials in those countries.
2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this

week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued

sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida

peninsula and the Florida Keys.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of

Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this

weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too

soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on

the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous

beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east

coast later this week and weekend.
INIT 03/2100Z 16.3N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH

 12H 04/0600Z 17.4N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH

 24H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

 36H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH

 48H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

 72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

 96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

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