If She Survives, Erika May Be Worth Watching

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (From NHC at 11p) —


1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

Erika is a very disorganized tropical storm. Although convection
has increased and is a little closer to the center tonight, data
from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that
the surface pressure is not falling, and the maximum winds remain
about 40 kt. These winds are confined to squalls to the north and
east of the center.

Erika will be moving through a hostile wind shear environment as
predicted by global models and the SHIPS guidance. On this
basis, the NHC forecast weakens Erika to a 35-kt tropical storm
and keeps that intensity for the next 48 hours. Erika, however,
could even degenerate into a trough during the next day or so. If
Erika survives the next 3 days and reaches the Bahamas, the
environment is expected to become quite favorable. In fact, global
models and the HWRF/GFDL pair forecast Erika to become a hurricane
by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus to reflect the possibility that the
cyclone could dissipate before it reaches the Bahamas, and then it
will be too late to take advantage of the more conducive environment

Fixes from the reconnaissance planes indicate that Erika is moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded
within well-established steering currents south of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. This persistent pattern will likely keep the
cyclone or its remnants, in case it weakens, on a west to
west-northwest motion for the next 3 days. After that time, the
system will be in between the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and a mid-level trough, which is forecast to be nearly
stationary along the east-central portion of the United States.
This will force the cyclone to turn more to the northwest or even
northward. Guidance shifted farther east tonight, and consequently,
the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly eastward, and it is
very close to the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models.

One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors
during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.

INIT 27/0300Z 16.7N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.4N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

Forecaster Avila


----------------------------------------LYFT PROMO CODE--------------------------------------
Use our Lyft promo code BNN123 for substantial discounts for your first Lyft rides. Enter the code in your app, or just click here.

---------------------------ABOUT BOCANEWSNOW.COM-----------------------

BocaNewsNow.com is the leading hyper-local news website based in and serving Boca Raton, Florida and South Palm Beach County. Our pages have been visited millions of times since our first post on October 4th, 2011. We have a verified history of reporting news, providing opinion and snark.

BocaNewsNow.com is NOT a mugshot website. We have never charged and DO NOT charge for mugshot removal. We are a news organization registered with the State of Florida and exempt from Senate Bill 118. We publish arrests of note provided to us by law enforcement under Chapter 119 of Florida Statutes. While we review all requests for removal, we are not obligated to remove reports that are a part of the public record.

When removal is appropriate, we do so at no charge. We do not accept payment for mugshot or arrest report deletion.

We are cognizant of the impact an arrest may have on one's life. If you are exonerated or if charges are dropped, please contact us to request an appropriate update to or removal of a specific story. We remind our readers that an arrest is an accusation. Guilt or innocence is determined in a court of law. Email us at news (at) bocanewsnow.com or telephone 561-419-9520.

All Content Copyright © 2017 MetroDesk Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved.